A Quick Take on the 15th Five-Year Plan Recommendations by the Communist Party of China: A Comparison of Plenary Communiques 2025 vs. 2020

Posted by David Marx on April 3, 2025

[This is an AI-translalted version of this article]

This article compares the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, released yesterday, with the communiqué of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, which discussed the draft outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan five years ago.

It shares some initial reflections on the report.

For clarity, the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be referred to as “this document,” while that of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee will be called “the previous document.” This analysis is far from exhaustive and reflects limited understanding; criticism is welcome.


1) Overall Impression of the Writing Style

Compared to the previous document, this one is more concise and substantive. It contains less macro-level, general principle-oriented language and more specific directional guidance.

  • Objectives for the plan period
    • This document dedicates 205 words to outlining the objectives for the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
    • The previous document devoted 757 words to describing the objectives for the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
  • Summary of achievements over the past five years
    • This document spans 211 characters and does not detail accomplishments in each area.
    • The previous document covered 494 characters, outlining significant achievements in specific domains such as deepening reforms, economic development, agricultural advancement, and opening up to the outside world.
  • Green transformation
    • This document: 151 words
    • Previous document: 196 words

After emphasizing adherence to the “Two Mountains” theory, this document succinctly proposes:

“Guided by carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, we will synergistically advance carbon reduction, pollution control, ecological expansion, and economic growth to fortify ecological security barriers and enhance green development momentum.”

By contrast, the previous version, following the “Two Mountains” theory, broadly proposed:

“We must respect, follow, and protect nature; prioritize conservation and protection while focusing on natural restoration; and safeguard the boundaries of natural ecological security.”

Comparing the two, I believe this version’s requirements are more specific and actionable.


2) Assessment of the Situation

This chapter no longer mentions that “China’s development remains in a period of important strategic opportunity.”

  • This document:
    “China’s development is in a period where strategic opportunities and risks and challenges coexist, with increasing uncertainties and unforeseeable factors.”

  • Previous version:
    “It is believed that in the current and coming period, China’s development remains in a period of important strategic opportunity, but both opportunities and challenges have undergone new developments and changes.”

Faced with more prominent risks and challenges, it is necessary to unite as one, stay focused on our goals, and fight together. Therefore, this document immediately follows its assessment of the situation with a call to strengthen the “Four Consciousnesses,” uphold the “Four Confidences,” and achieve the “Two Upholds.”

In contrast, the previous communiqué included related statements within the section affirming the work of the Political Bureau over the past year.

Simultaneously, in response to heightened risks, this communiqué calls for:

“courageously confronting major tests amid high winds and rough seas, even raging storms, overcoming difficulties, combating risks, and meeting challenges with a spirit of historical initiative.”

This language is more solemn and thought-provoking than the previous communiqué’s call to “enhance awareness of opportunities and risks.”


3) Guiding Ideology, Overall Objectives, and Guiding Principles

After emphasizing adherence to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, this document adds:

  • “centering on economic development”
  • “ensuring full and rigorous Party self-governance as the fundamental guarantee”

…while omitting the reference to “deepening supply-side structural reform as the main thread.”

In articulating the overarching objectives, the 217-word detailed exposition from the previous section has been distilled into:

“Promote the effective enhancement of economic quality and the reasonable growth of economic quantity; advance the comprehensive development of individuals and the common prosperity of all people with solid strides; and ensure decisive progress toward the basic realization of socialist modernization.”

Regarding the principles to be followed, this section adds two new points compared to the previous one:

  • combining an effective market with an active government
  • balancing development and security

4) Primary Objectives for the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

Compared with the previous section, this section adds:

  • “significantly enhancing the level of self-reliance and strength in science and technology” as a major objective
  • An explicit emphasis on “continuously improving the quality of people’s lives” in the section on people’s well-being

For the long-term goals by 2035, this section adds:

  • a substantial leap in national defense strength
  • a substantial leap in international influence

…to the existing goals of a substantial leap in:

  • economic strength
  • scientific and technological strength
  • comprehensive national strength

6) Sequence of Mentioned Areas

Below is a comparison of the ordering of policy areas.

This Document Previous Document
Modern industrial system Self-reliance and strength in science and technology
Scientific and technological self-reliance and strength Modern industrial system
Domestic market Domestic market
Market economy system Market economy system
Opening up to the world Rural areas
Agriculture Regional culture
Regional Green
Culture Opening up
Livelihood Livelihood
Green Security
Security National defense
National defense

The main changes are as follows:

  • The sequence of “building a modern industrial system” and “achieving self-reliance and strength in science and technology” has been swapped.
  • Opening up to the outside world rises significantly in priority.
  • The priority of people’s livelihoods has been swapped with that of green development.

7) Specific Requirements for Each Field

Real economy / industrial development

This chapter adds:

  • “adhering to the direction of intelligent, green, and integrated development”
  • “building a strong aerospace nation
  • “maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing and constructing a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone

Before fostering emerging and future industries, it first proposes:

  • optimizing and upgrading traditional industries

“accelerating the development of modern service industries” is adjusted to:

  • promoting high-quality and efficient development of the service sector

“coordinating infrastructure construction” is adjusted to:

  • building a modern infrastructure system

Self-reliance and strength in science and technology

This chapter continues the integrated strategy of:

  • education, science and technology, and talent

…from the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, explicitly proposing:

  • “Strengthen original innovation and breakthroughs in key core technologies.”

Expanding domestic demand

This chapter proposes integrating:

  • improving people’s livelihoods with boosting consumption

It adjusts the goal from:

  • “comprehensively promoting consumption”

…to:

  • “vigorously stimulating consumption.”

It calls for:

  • “fostering positive interaction between consumption and investment, supply and demand
  • “enhancing the endogenous momentum and reliability of the domestic economic cycle

Opening up to the outside world

It proposes:

  • “upholding the multilateral trading system
  • “actively expanding autonomous opening-up
  • “expanding space for two-way investment cooperation

…while calling for:

  • “sharing opportunities and pursuing common development with countries around the world.”

Regional development

It proposes:

  • “optimizing the layout of major productive forces
  • “leveraging the role of key regional growth poles
  • “strengthening the development, utilization, and protection of the oceans

Culture

The document proposes:

  • “stimulating the innovative and creative vitality of the entire nation”
  • “rooting in the profound and extensive Chinese civilization”
  • “adapting to the trends of information technology development”

People’s livelihoods

It proposes:

  • “facilitating social mobility channels”
  • “improving the income distribution system”
  • “promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector”

These three points were not mentioned in the previous section.

Security

Content related to social governance was added, proposing to:

  • “ensure a vibrant yet orderly society”

In the previous version, social governance was discussed under the section on people’s livelihoods.


8) On Studying and Implementing the Meeting Spirit, and Current Key Tasks

This section compares with the communiqué of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee.

Following the section on studying the plenary session’s spirit, it emphasizes the importance of exercising full and rigorous Party self-governance and continuing the fight against corruption.

In contrast, the Third Plenary Session communiqué mentioned full and rigorous Party self-governance after discussing the current situation.

When discussing the current situation, the phrasing was adjusted from “resolutely” achieving the annual development goals to “firmly achieving” them.

It proposed the “Five Stabilities,” stated that macro policies should:

  • “continue to exert force and strengthen efforts at the appropriate time”
  • “implement enterprise support policies”
  • “thoroughly implement the special campaign to boost consumption”

It particularly emphasized safeguarding:

  • employment
  • people’s livelihoods
  • production safety